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| Keywords: Projected carbon dioxide emissions and atmospheric concentrations over the 21st century for reference and mitigation scenarios.png carbon dioxide CO<sub>2</sub> emissions and atmospheric concentrations for reference and climate change mitigation scenarios In the reference scenarios light grey it is assumed that no efforts are made to reduce anthropogenic i e human-produced greenhouse gas emissions In the mitigation scenarios anthropogenic CO<sub>2</sub> emissions are reduced sufficiently to stabilize atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> concentrations at approximately 450 to 750 parts-per-million by volume ppmv <ref> Table TS 2 in Technical Summary in harvnb Clarke others 2007 9 </ref> Non-CO<sub>2</sub> anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are also reduced in the stabilization scenarios but this is not shown in the graph In the mitigation scenarios CO<sub>2</sub> emissions peak then decline The lower the atmospheric stabilization level of CO<sub>2</sub> the sooner the peak occurs In the 450 ppm scenario emissions peak in 2010 In the 550 ppm scenario emissions level off between 2010 and 2050 then decline In the 650 ppm scenario emissions peak in 2050 while in the 750 ppm scenario they peak in 2060-70 Emissions in the reference scenarios vary widely In the highest emissions reference scenario emissions increase steadily over most of the 21st century In the lowest emissions reference scenario emissions peak in 2050 then decline In all of the mitigation scenarios atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> concentrations in 2000 are 371 ppm Concentrations increase gradually over the century In 2100 concentrations in the mitigation scenarios are 451 526 614 and 677 ppm In the reference scenarios concentrations in 2000 range between 369 and 372 ppm In 2100 concentrations range from 553 to 901 ppmv Emissions Most of the scenario data is listed in a later section as comma-separated values The following text briefly summarizes changes in CO<sub>2</sub> emissions for the scenarios The first number is the year labelled y This is followed by the projected range of emissions across the reference scenarios r then the projected range of emissions across the mitigation scenarios The following labels are used for the mitigation scenarios L1 450 ppm L2 550 ppm L3 650 ppm L4 750 ppm Emissions are measured in billion tonnes of CO<sub>2</sub> GtCO<sub>2</sub> 2000 y 24-30 r 24 L1 to L4 2030 y 34-52 r 21 L1 32 L2 38 L3 42 L4 2060 y 39-85 r 16 L1 28 L2 44 L3 55 L4 2090 y 26-101 r 15 L1 22 L2 33 L3 46 L4 2100 y 21-103 r 14 L1 21 L2 30 L3 39 L4 Concentrations The following text summarizes changes in atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> concentrations for the scenarios The same labels are used as for emissions Concentrations are measured in parts-per-million by volume ppmv 2000 y 369-372 r 371 L1 to L4 2030 y 434-453 r 414 L1 431 L2 439 L3 444 L4 2060 y 509-603 r 435 L1 488 L2 531 L3 554 L4 2090 y 549-821 r 449 L1 520 L2 600 L3 654 L4 2100 y 553-901 r 451 L1 526 L2 614 L3 677 L4 Data sources Scenario data are taken from Clarke et al 2007 <ref name clarke data > https //web archive org/web/20130616054921/http //www climatescience gov/Library/sap/sap2-1/finalreport/CCSP-2-1A-Scenario-Information-070707 xls CCSP-2-1A-Scenario-Information-070707 xls in Clarke others 2007 </ref> and the International Institute for Applied System Analysis IIASA 2009 <ref name iiasa data > IIASA 2009 </ref> Data from Clarke et al 2007 <ref name clarke data /> are in the public-domain and are included in a following section Data from IIASA 2009 <ref name iiasa data /> can be freely downloaded from their website The graph is based on six reference scenarios and four mitigation scenarios Three of the reference scenarios are taken from Clarke et al 2007 and are labelled IGSM_REF MERGE_REF and MINICAM_REF The other three reference scenarios are taken from IIASA 2009 and are labelled A2r - Baseline B1 - Baseline and B2 “ Baseline All three of the mitigation scenarios are taken from Clarke et al 2007 and are labelled IGSM_Level1 IGSM_Level2 IGSM_Level3 and IGSM_Level4 Notes reflist References citation CITEREFClarkeothers2007 Clarke L et al July 2007 Scenarios of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Atmospheric Concentrations Sub-report 2 1A of Synthesis and Assessment Product 2 1 by the U S Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research Department of Energy Office of Biological Environmental Research Washington DC USA http //library globalchange gov/products/assessments/2004-2009-synthesis-and-assessment-products/sap-2-1a-scenarios-of-greenhouse-gas-emissions-and-atmospheric-concentrations citation CITEREFIIASA2009 IIASA 2009 International Institute for Applied System Analysis IIASA GGI Scenario Database Ver 2 0 http //www iiasa ac at/Research/GGI/DB/ own Enescot 2013-07-19 Data As stated only public-domain data from Clarke et al 2007 are included Data from IIASA 2009 can be freely accessed from their website Data were exported from OpenOffice org 3 4 1 Calc as comma separated values csv The following options were used Character set Western Europe 1252 Field delimiter Text delimiter Quote all text cells no Save cell content as shown yes Fixed column width no <pre> Region Category Sub Category Variable Units Run Label 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 World Climate Info Anthropogenic Emissions Fossil and Other Industrial CO2 gigatonnes of C IGSM_REF 6 6842737198 8 612683805 10 7913220822 12 9109122699 15 5859919198 18 0949347622 20 1681232183 21 6016525719 22 7027775309 23 5308099523 24 1038326684 World Climate Info Anthropogenic Emissions Fossil and Other Industrial CO2 gigatonnes of C IGSM_Level1 6 6842737207 8 612683805 6 298030909 5 7749571923 5 0600890858 4 4762424559 4 2689948554 4 2433450752 4 1848760513 4 0449946885 3 8263214058 World Climate Info Anthropogenic Emissions Fossil and Other Industrial CO2 gigatonnes of C IGSM_Level2 6 6842737207 8 612683805 8 2957637412 8 7209027128 8 914172585 8 3905127406 7 5828567835 7 0004639576 6 4626998619 6 0163542361 5 636843884 World Climate Info Anthropogenic Emissions Fossil and Other Industrial CO2 gigatonnes of C IGSM_Level3 6 6842737207 8 612683805 9 2226192094 10 3282657853 11 5943139537 12 3364070465 11 9520173233 11 1313954092 10 2522160389 9 0804844477 8 3201781476 World Climate Info Anthropogenic Emissions Fossil and Other Industrial CO2 gigatonnes of C IGSM_Level4 6 6842737207 8 612683805 9 7679410566 11 3304716767 13 103451506 14 3740065343 14 9653345385 14 8518230509 13 8170843706 12 6217674441 10 7728804456 World Climate Info Anthropogenic Emissions Fossil and Other Industrial CO2 gigatonnes of C MERGE_REF 6 619 7 1614349107 8 5126944839 9 2902614648 10 1252341026 11 0711972538 13 2817937913 15 8846994758 18 4800859978 21 089701103 23 8686301812 World Climate Info Anthropogenic Emissions Fossil and Other Industrial CO2 gigatonnes of C MINICAM_REF 6 7 8 1567373867 9 4914819553 10 9132339838 12 3469394395 13 7925983222 15 5019933728 17 2248334433 18 9611185336 20 6999068525 22 4386951713 convert C to CO2 3 6641245525 Region Category Sub Category Variable Units Run Label 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 World Climate Info Anthropogenic Emissions Fossil and Other Industrial CO2 gigatonnes of CO2 IGSM_REF 24 4920114522 31 5579461926 39 5407481952 47 3071906431 57 1090156682 66 3020947381 73 898515462 79 151145563 83 1858045606 86 2198184863 88 3194450896 World Climate Info Anthropogenic Emissions Fossil and Other Industrial CO2 gigatonnes of CO2 IGSM_Level1 24 4920114555 31 5579461926 23 0767696861 21 1601624379 18 5407966569 16 4015098854 15 6421288641 15 5481448748 15 3339070888 14 8213643527 14 0201182089 World Climate Info Anthropogenic Emissions Fossil and Other Industrial CO2 gigatonnes of CO2 IGSM_Level2 24 4920114555 31 5579461926 30 3967116057 31 9544737501 32 6626386339 30 7438837409 27 7845317186 25 6505718657 23 6801372393 22 0446712728 20 6540980741 World Climate Info Anthropogenic Emissions Fossil and Other Industrial CO2 gigatonnes of CO2 IGSM_Level3 24 4920114555 31 5579461926 33 7928254835 37 8440522484 42 4830104269 45 2021319487 43 793680126 40 7868192224 37 5653965057 33 2720260133 30 4861690319 World Climate Info Anthropogenic Emissions Fossil and Other Industrial CO2 gigatonnes of CO2 IGSM_Level4 24 4920114555 31 5579461926 35 7909526528 41 5162594618 48 0126783856 52 6681502602 54 8348497189 54 4189294902 50 627518086 46 2477279879 39 4731757417 World Climate Info Anthropogenic Emissions Fossil and Other Industrial CO2 gigatonnes of CO2 MERGE_REF 24 252840413 26 2403894872 31 1915728662 34 0406751324 37 1001188753 40 5662456832 48 666146732 58 2035173583 67 7133368369 77 2752916163 87 4576338814 World Climate Info Anthropogenic Emissions Fossil and Other Industrial CO2 gigatonnes of CO2 MINICAM_REF 24 5496345017 29 887301727 34 7779720721 39 9874485873 45 2407239482 50 5377981549 56 8012345299 63 1139351322 69 4758999617 75 8470369324 82 2181739031 Region Category Sub Category Variable Units Run Label 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 World Climate Info Concentrations CO2 ppmv IGSM_REF 371 392 419 453 494 544 603 666 733 803 875 World Climate Info Concentrations CO2 ppmv IGSM_Level1 371 392 402 414 423 430 435 440 445 449 451 World Climate Info Concentrations CO2 ppmv IGSM_Level2 371 392 410 431 452 472 488 500 511 520 526 World Climate Info Concentrations CO2 ppmv IGSM_Level3 371 392 414 439 468 500 531 558 581 600 614 World Climate Info Concentrations CO2 ppmv IGSM_Level4 371 392 415 444 478 514 554 591 624 654 677 World Climate Info Concentrations CO2 ppmv MERGE_REF 370 389 410 434 459 485 516 555 600 652 711 World Climate Info Concentrations CO2 ppmv MINICAM_REF 372 393 417 444 474 507 547 590 636 691 746 </pre> Global warming graphs Greenhouse emissions Atmospheric carbon dioxide Cc-zero | ||||
